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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still