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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."